COP26 is a vital opportunity to bring the pace of the net zero transition up to speed; at present, it is simply moving too slow. John Mullen, UK energy market director at Ramboll, discusses how the discrepancies between messaging and action from the government is proving a major hindrance
COP26 is approaching fast, and with it arrives what many have already labelled the world’s last best chance to tackle the climate crisis. Unfortunately, the pace of the transition to a net zero economy is not moving at nearly the same speed as the crisis itself. For COP26 to be considered a success, the summit must act as a catalyst for the badly needed global transition to a net zero future.
As host of the conference, the UK has an opportunity and obligation to lead by example and ensure that COP26 fulfils its responsibility to speed up the global transition. However, so far, the government has all too often relied on words and either underdelivered on action or acted in contradiction to its own goals.
Industry, which has also been slow to act, needs strong leadership, which has been lacking up to now, as is industry confidence in the government’s commitment and strategic direction. Put simply, bold commitments and targets are meaningless if action is too slow.
To ensure that the UK hits the ground running on initiatives emerging from COP26, the government must ensure that messaging is clear and direct, that actions are consistent with this messaging, and that strategies, such as the recently published Heat and Buildings Strategy, are effective and well-executed.
Confusion and obscurity
The rhetoric that the UK and other world leaders are bringing into COP26 has been bold, for the most part. Targets for net zero carbon economies and transitioning to clean energy and infrastructure are clear priorities. Unfortunately, beyond these lofty words, confusion and obscurity abounds – especially with regards to the government’s intended routes to actually achieving these targets.
Progress has lagged behind ambition because the messaging that Government has issued to industry and the wider population has not set a clear and practical path. Given the pressing nature of the climate challenge, it is imperative that targets are set around bold but feasible actions that can be enacted now.
The most effective way of providing clarity on the road to net zero is through robust and effective legislation. Whilst reward and subsidy schemes for green-focused initiatives can be some help, this model fosters a disconnect between the government’s messaging and what industry is actually required to do.
Under the subsidy model, industry is enabled to set out a strategy that allows them to reap the benefits of the subsidies, and whilst this can be beneficial to their bottom line it is not done for the right reasons or to drive the right long-term behaviours. Overall, this strategy has failed to hit the speed of transition that industry must reach to tackle the climate crisis or make the transition sustainable.
Legislation-backed messaging
Instead, legislation is required to ensure that industry transition strategies are fast and impactful, incentivised by the risk of reputational and punitive consequences. Ultimately, this is not about carrots or sticks, it is about clear leadership and commitment coming from the government.
The climate crisis won’t wait any longer for the government to take action, and so the government must set legislation that supports their rhetoric so that industry can be left with no uncertainties and will be spurred to quickly instigate real change and make real progress towards net zero goals. Industry also needs to step up, it knows fine well what the problems are and needs to lobby Government to make changes that are fundamental, not just window dressing or self-serving.
Alongside ensuring industry action is driven by clear, legislation-backed messaging, the government must also hold itself accountable for keeping its actions consistent with its words. So far, there have been far too many examples of the government vocalising a green commitment one day, and then acting in completely contrary ways the next.
Setting out a target to ban the installation of all new gas and oil boilers by 2025 whilst planning subsidies for 20,000 new gas boilers sets a prime example. These contrary actions present dangerously mixed messaging, and Government inconsistency is only hampering progress. It distracts from the most pressing issues that the climate crisis presents. Time spent scrutinising the latest controversial topic or poorly made decisions would be far better spent tackling key issues, such as accelerating electrification of transport and low-carbon solutions for heating, the aviation sector or shipping.
The government is not only responsible for outlining the path of net zero transition, but for defining the behaviours, the context and the language needed to meet the net zero challenge. COP26 puts world leaders in a powerful position to set the course of direction, and we can’t waste this last best chance. The UK will continue to struggle to make progress on climate change risks if Government action undermines its own messaging.
The Heat & Building Strategy
The UK’s Heat & Building Strategy is a prime example of a key opportunity for the government to set clear targets and spur faster progress on carbon emissions. Industry reaction remains to be fully seen, but even the initial messaging is plagued by obscurity. The Boiler ‘Upgrade’ Scheme will not upgrade boilers, but rather intends to replace them like for like, not utilising alternative energy sources, which risks complicating implementation into households.
Moreover, there is no obligation to replace a gas boiler until 2035 or to future proof homes being built now for the transition to low carbon heating. As it becomes increasingly salient that effective and widespread action is needed quickly, these sort of time frames risk being simply too long.
As hosts to the COP26 summit, the UK is in a position of particular influence on the global stage. The climate challenge will affect all nations, it is not a competition and we must work together; the speed of the global transition cannot afford to go at the pace of its slowest runner. As well as facing greater challenges in building the necessary green infrastructure, some nations will be harder hit than others by the climate change effects we are already seeing.
Richer nations need to come together to support poorer nations that are committed to net zero, and for some, that are already on the front line of the crisis. Similarly, nations must stand together against those countries not meeting their commitments or responsibilities, as a holistic and globally consistent approach will be key to preventing a climate emergency. There cannot be a one-country solution to our clean energy future, and this international mindset will only offer further opportunities.
If the UK can bring cohesion to its messaging and actions, we will be well-positioned in the future to help bolster renewable infrastructure in less developed countries, allowing us to expand our options for sourcing renewable energy, as well as exporting our own expertise, and reduce global emissions in regions that are falling behind the green transition.
However, for domestic priorities, and to ensure we make the most of COP26, Government leadership must show clear messaging and consistent action, alongside transition strategies that are fit for purpose and in line with the priorities of COP26. The clock is ticking, and there is no room for procrastination or half measures, only a slimming window in which to act. Intentions are well set, but Government and industry must ensure that actions are strategic, sustainable and, crucially, up to speed.
