The latest forecast estimates growth in UK construction output by 2017, with private house building and infrastructure improvements expected to be a key driver…
The UK’s Construction Products Association (CPA) said it expects to see growth in UK construction output over the next two years.
The firm, which represents manufacturers and distributors of construction products and materials, forecast 13.2 per cent growth. It is thought this will be seen predominately in the private houses sector and infrastructure.
The company also warned it expects to see a sharp fall in the number of public housing developments, which will hinder growth in the short term.
One area the construction sector has struggled with is the shortage of skilled workers. Recently, concerns were raised about the ability of small and medium enterprises to hire enough skilled workers. The CPA agreed with the concerns, stating “significant investment” would be needed to support the sector in the medium term.
So what do the forecast figures state? The CPA predicts construction output will increase by 4.9 per cent in 2015, by 4.2 per cent in 2016, and by 3.5 per cent in 2017.
It expects private house building will rise 9.0 per cent in 2015, 5.5 per cent in 2015, and 3.5 per cent in 2017, while public housing is forecast to drop by 10.0 per cent in 2015, 5.0 per cent in 2016, and remain flat in 2017.
The CPA also predicts infrastructure output will rise 10.3 per cent in 2015, 10.8 per cent in 2016, and 10.4 per cent in 2017.
Economics Director Dr Noble Francis said, “Prospects for the construction industry are very bright. Construction output is forecast to increase 4.9 per cent in 2015 – almost double the rate of growth for the UK economy as a whole – and 21.7 per cent overall by 2019.
“This growth will mainly be driven by an increase in work across the private housing and infrastructure sectors.
“The government has a National Infrastructure Plan in place with a pipeline of projects across the UK worth £411 billion (€562.26 billion).
“As a consequence, we forecast that infrastructure output will experience double-digit growth each year to the end of our forecast horizon in 2019.
“It’s not all good news, however, as yet again we expect delays until 2018 for the main works on the nuclear power station Hinkley Point C.”
He added: “Our forecast growth of 21.7 per cent by 2019 for construction has raised a key risk regarding the lack of skilled labour.
“Employment in the UK construction industry is now 390,000 lower than at its 2008 peak. So far, the lack of skilled labour has primarily affected the house building sector.
“As the wider industry activity picks up, however, this issue is likely to spread across the industry. In the short term, it is already putting upward pressure on costs. In the medium term, the forecast growth will not be possible without significant investment in skills.”