An uptick in planning approvals and main contract awards, as documented in the Glenigan October 2022 Construction review, suggests recovery of the industry is on the horizon
The Glenigan October 2022 Construction review has been released, providing an analysis of year-on-year construction with a specific focus on the three months leading to the end of September 2022.
The review covers all major (>£100m) and underlying (<£100m) projects, with all underlying figures seasonally adjusted.
The review reflected the year’s track record of high materials and energy costs, economic and political chaos and ratcheting building regulations keeping the market depressed for the foreseeable future. Project starts dipped once more, showing -9% against the preceding three months.
However, there was an increase in main contract awards and planning approvals (both +3% each), suggesting that recovery will follow in the coming months.
Project starts in Scotland and England declined, but Wales and NI remained steady
Once again, Northern Ireland performed well, with project-starts increasing 31% against the preceding quarter, standing 51% up on a year ago.
Wales also delivered positive results, remaining unchanged in the previous three months, rising 7% on 2021.
Unfortunately, the outlook was decidedly bleaker across the rest of the UK. The North East (-38%), East of England (-36%) and London (-30%) and Scotland (-26%), all slide back on the preceding quarter.
London, which has seen a steady decline in activity over 2022, also posted the largest decline against last year, diving 45%.
Glenigan economics director, Allan Wilen commented: “Sector verticals and the UK regions are feeling the economic pinch and, whilst a few major projects are bolstering results, the underlying figures indicate there’s a massive mountain to climb to stabilise the sector. The new Government needs to get a grip of the situation from day one and offer a clear strategy to support UK construction, which currently lacks the rigorous policy from key departments to recover and progress.”
Both residential and non-residential work performed poorly in the Glenigan October 2022 Construction review
Overall, residential work starting on site fell by a third during Q.3, to sit 24% lower than a year ago.
Private housing performed poorly, plummeting 37%, 20% lower than in 2021. Social housing also fell by 13% and 36% against the same set of criteria.
A sharp decline was the consistent theme across most verticals during Q.3 in non-residential works, as education and health weakened 37% and 39% respectively against the preceding three months. Both were also down on 2021.
Office project starts fell considerably, 30% against the preceding quarter and 37% compared to the previous year.
Hotel and leisure was 13% up on the preceding three months but down 28% on 2021 levels.
Industrial (-13%) and retail (-14%) experienced relatively small declines against the preceding quarter, but dropped 16% and 27% respectively against last year’s performance scores.
Civils provided a welcome lift in an otherwise disappointing period, increasing 1% on the preceding quarter and over 10% on last year.
Particularly, growth can be attributed to a spurt in utilities work starting on site, as well as a relatively steady stream of infrastructure project-starts.
Underlying performance remains low but there is promise on the horizon
Major project planning approvals were up an impressive 58% by the end of Q.3, to stand 158% up on 2021 figures. Major project contract awards were up a similarly impressive 27% against the preceding three months, 59% on last year’s figures.
Despite planning approvals increasing 8% over the past quarter, they remained 10% lower than a year ago. This follows low underlying performance softening results, dipping 8% compared the previous three months in contract award terms (6% down on last year).
Underlying project-start performance was gloomy, posting a 27% decline against the preceding three months, 23% down on last year.
But major projects once again saw a respectable rise in work starting on site, climbing by a third in comparison to the preceding three months; however this figure remained 14% lower than the same period in 2021.
Stability after months of political turbulence should transfer into the industry soon
Allen Willen continued:
“The sector has faced considerable amounts of turbulence over the past twelve months. A new Prime Minister, changing of the ministerial guard and wildly fluctuating markets have done nothing to inspire consumer and investor confidence.
“However, the pound rallying once again and the promise of economic stability from the autumn financial statement should go some way to calming the choppy waters. With activity trickling back into the pipeline, everyone in the sector hopes the flow of awards and approvals picks up once again, even if project starts currently remain stagnant.”
