The November 2022 RICS UK Residential Survey shows a negative trend, as house prices fall nationally and overall activity continues to weaken across the sales market, as higher interest rates and rising demand and falling supply send rental prices upwards
The latest RICS UK Residential Survey showed that buyer demand continued to fall for the seventh month in a row, with the net balance at -38%. Whilst this is less negative than the -53% reported in the previous month, the market remains in a firmly downward trend with indications that this will continue in the near term.
For agreed sales, a national net balance of -35% was reported over this survey period indicating a continued decline in sales activity. This is marginally less negative than the reading of -45% posted in October, but is the second month in a row that respondents across every UK region reported a decline in agreed sales, demonstrating what is now a consistently negative picture at the national level.
The survey’s measure of new instructions coming onto the sales market also remains in negative territory, posting a net balance of -9% at the national level. That said, given the drop-off in sales volumes of late, average stock levels on estate agents’ books ticked up marginally in November.
House prices show the lowest reading since May 2022
Regarding house prices, a net balance of -25% of survey participants witnessed a fall at the national level over the month. This is the lowest reading since May 2022. Prices are reportedly retreating across most parts of the UK, with the latest feedback especially downcast in the South East and South West of England.
Prices continue to rise in Scotland and Northern Ireland, albeit the pace of growth is significantly subdued compared to earlier in the year. Over the coming twelve months, an aggregate net balance of -61% of contributors foresees a further decline in house prices.
Tenant demand rises whilst rental availability dwindles
The survey showed a drop off in the sales market activity stands in contrast to a clear growth in the lettings market.
Tenant demand continues to rise, evidenced by a net balance of +35% of respondents reporting a pick-up in November. Concurrently, the flow of fresh supply becoming available on the rental market continues to dwindle, as a net balance of -27% of respondents highlighted a decline in landlord instructions this month.
Consequently, the ongoing misalignment between rising demand and falling supply drives rents higher. A headline net balance of +43% of contributors anticipates rental prices to increase over the coming three months. However, this is somewhat moderate when compared to a recent high of +66% back in February this year.
The latest RICS Residential Survey reflects the uncertain macro environment and the higher cost of mortgage finance
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist, commented: “The overall tone of the latest RICS Residential Survey is understandably more downbeat than previously, reflecting the uncertain macro environment and the higher cost of mortgage finance. However, anecdotal comments from respondents capture the very real significant divergences in market behaviour at a more localised level.
“Although the headline price balance recorded two consecutive modest monthly falls in prices, and the forward-looking series indicate that this trend will extend through the coming months, the likely ‘job-rich’ recession suggests the downturn in the housing market this time could be shallower compared with past experiences.
“Meanwhile, the imbalance in the rental market remains significant as landlord instructions continue to fall and is consistent with further increases in rents, even if the momentum does appear to be slowing just a little.”
