A recent study by 3Keel for Kingspan has highlighted a concerning trend in carbon emissions from buildings from several European G20 countries
The carbon reductions in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany have slowed, making them unlikely to meet their Paris Agreement targets. At the same time, the United States has also significantly increased emissions.
The study, titled the Global Retrofit Index interim report, is a sequel to the inaugural 2022 study and focuses on historical building emission trends and retrofitting rates.
The study’s objective is to establish what needs to be done to meet the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.
The report includes an in-depth analysis of building emissions data from some of the highest-performing countries in the previous year’s study. It also introduces Ireland’s relatively new building stock as an EU-based case study.
EU nations have struggled to maintain momentum
Although certain EU nations, such as the Netherlands, France, Ireland, and Germany, have shown progress, the analysis reveals a slowing in emission reductions in these countries.
The rise in greenhouse gas emissions from buildings in the United States is especially concerning. This information highlights the need for renewed efforts and strategic changes challenges to meeting Paris Agreement targets.
3Keel’s analysis shows that if current greenhouse gas reduction and retrofitting rates persist, six major economies are projected to fall far short of achieving their national net zero objectives by 2040 set out in their Paris Agreement targets. [See table below]
| Country | Reduction in building emissions between 2010 – 2020 (%) | Additional reduction in building emissions required between 2020- 2040 to align with national net zero scenario (%) |
| US | +3% | -73% |
| UK | -6% | -71% |
| Germany | -19% | -81% |
| Ireland | -25% | -99% |
| France | -31% | -77% |
| Netherlands | -36% | -64% |
EPC data showed limited improvement in building energy efficiency in the UK, France, and Ireland. Data also show that Germany’s residential buildings heavily rely on fossil-fuel heating. Despite existing retrofitting solutions, barriers like insufficient private investment, a skills shortage, and poor awareness continue.
“This study shows a concerning stagnation of progress. Our analysis of six countries with old building stocks reveals that reductions in building emissions are now stalling, and retrofitting rates are lagging far behind what is required to meet net-zero goals,” said report author Olwen Smith of 3Keel.
“The tools and technologies required to improve energy performance in buildings already exist. Coordinated efforts between governments and the private sector are now needed to overcome implementation barriers and rapidly scale retrofitting to drive down building emissions globally,” he added.
Retrofit is essential in meeting Paris Agreement targets
Retrofitting is vital for decarbonising the built environment, given that 80% of 2050’s buildings are already constructed. The report outlines key elements for a successful retrofitting framework, including net zero standards, a national plan, financial incentives, workforce upskilling, and promoting best practices.
“This analysis again demonstrates the importance of retrofitting as a lever in decarbonising the built environment if we’re to limit global warming to 1.5˚C and meet the objectives set out by the Paris Agreement targets,” said Bianca Wong, global head of sustainability at Kingspan.
“With this report, we encourage policymakers and the construction industry to continue to work together to facilitate change, through innovation and regulation, to bring forward workable ideas to support retrofit solutions and reduce global building emissions”, she concluded.
