The Glenigan January 2024 Construction Index shows a more positive outlook for construction, with an upturn in project starts, and a rise in private residential construction
In the final quarter of 2023, the value of construction projects initially dropped due to seasonal factors, but after adjusting for these, there was a 4% increase compared to the previous quarter.
Private residential construction showed significant improvement and contributed to a 14% increase in the residential sector.
Despite positive news for the residential sector, overall project starts were 20% lower than the previous year.
The non-residential sector faced challenges, with most projects starting a third less than the previous year.
On-site work was affected by seasonal factors in Q4
Commenting on the recent figures, Glenigan’s economic director, Allan Wilen, said: “Seasonal factors affected work commencing on-site during the final quarter of the year.
“After adjusting for the Christmas wind-down, starts managed to edge slightly higher during these three months. This was partly driven by a modest rise in private housing projects, indicating that developers may be entering the New Year with renewed confidence.
“Less encouraging were the declines in non-residential and civil engineering project starts, which have continued to weaken. This suggests the construction sector can expect tough times in the near term.
“It means March’s Spring Budget will be hotly anticipated. Many contractors will be expecting the Government, especially in an election year, to clarify or update on the big infrastructure projects put forward in 2023, particularly following the rollback on HS2 plans last year, as part of a wider package to kick-start activity.”
Private housing saw a 19% increase compared to the previous quarter
In the residential sector, construction starts increased by 14% in Q4 2023 but were still 8% lower than a year ago.
Private housing saw a 19% increase compared to the previous quarter but was 9% weaker than in 2022.
Social housing performed poorly, with a 2% decline in Q4 and a 5% decrease from the previous year.
Industrial and office projects declined by a staggering 48% compared to the previous year
Non-residential construction had mixed performance.
Community and amenity projects increased by 6% in Q4, showing a strong performance, while retail starts grew by 20% against the previous quarter and 6% against the previous year.
However, industrial and office projects both declined by 48% compared to the previous year. Education and health projects also suffered setbacks.
London had a 29% increase in project starts in Q4 2023
Regionally, London stood out with a 29% increase in project starts in Q4, despite an 11% decrease from the same period in 2022.
The South East had strong growth of 16% compared to the previous quarter but declined by 29% compared to 2022 levels.
The West Midlands and North East performed well, while the East of England experienced a poor performance, declining by 11% in Q4 and remaining 32% down from the previous year.
Some areas, including Northern Ireland and the East Midlands, faced significant declines in project starts.
