The Royal Institute of British Architects’s Future Trends November 2023 suggest that both workloads and staffing will fall in the coming months
The Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) has published the findings from its latest Future Trends Survey, a monthly report of business and employment trends affecting the architects’ profession.
According to the November figures, architects generally expect future workloads and staffing levels to drop- although this prognosis was a less gloomy one than the previous months.
Larger practices were more confident about the the future, although smaller businesses may be harder hit by a slowdown in the housing sector.
Architect’s predictions about the future are mixed, but lean towards slower work
Over the next three months, 21% of practices expect workloads to increase, 28% expect them to decrease, and 51% expect them to stay the same.
Small practices (those with 1-10 staff) returned a confidence figure of -12, dropping by 3 points, while the outlook of medium (11+ staff) and large (50+ staff) practices was markedly more optimistic, returning a combined figure of +24, a 22-point rise compared to October.
All four monitored work sectors had a negative but improved outlook on future work:
- The outlook for the Private Housing sector rose by 6 points to -16
- The commercial sector rose by 3 points to -1
- The public sector rose by 3 points to -7
- The community sector rose by 5 points to -2.
In November, the RIBA Future Trends Workload Index rose by 2 points to -6.
The regional picture was mixed, with staffing levels expected to fall overall in the RIBA Future Trends report
Wales and the West’s outlook on future work rose by 33 points to +2 – a rapid recovery – while London’s outlook held steady at -3. The outlook for the South of England (-9), the Midlands & East Anglia (-19) and the North of England (-4) all worsened.
In November, the RIBA Future Trends Permanent Staffing Index rose by 1 point to -3, suggesting that practices expect to employ fewer permanent staff over the next three months.
Small practices continue to expect staffing levels to decline, returning a slightly lower Permanent Staffing Index figure of -5. Medium and large practices expect an overall increase in permanent staff, returning a combined Permanent Staffing Index figure of +5, a 7-point rise from last month.
Over the next three months, 5% of practices expect to employ more permanent staff, 9% expect to employ fewer, and 86% expect no change.
All but one region anticipates falling permanent staffing levels. In line with its optimism about future work levels, Wales and the West returned a positive (+4) Staffing Index figure.
The Temporary Staffing Index recovered marginally to -5, suggesting falling numbers of temporary staff in the next three months. Levels of personal underemployment fell slightly to 22%.
New opportunities may come from overseas
RIBA’s head of economic research and analysis Adrian Malleson said: “The related pressures of raised interest rates, increased project costs, and project finance continue to weigh down on new commissions.
“Practices describe a challenging market, with fewer enquiries and new commissions. They highlight elevated project costs, protracted planning delays, and fee competition from both within and outside the profession.
“But some practices report early signs of an improving market, with more enquiries, and more opportunities for commissions from overseas.”
