The October 2026 edition of Glenigan’s Construction Review reveals the UK construction sector is experiencing considerable turbulence, with activity weakening across all three key indicators
The October Review covers the three months to the end of September 2026 and includes all major (>£100m) and underlying (<£100m) projects in UK construction.
While the latest official figures indicate the economy as a whole is growing, construction output was the weak spot, falling by 0.5%.
Allan Wilen, economics director at Glenigan, explained: “Rising contract awards show intent and suggest confidence is returning to parts of the market, telling us schemes are being planned and funded, but the work has not reached the ground yet.
“Too much of the market still rests on a small number of large projects. If one of them slips, the whole sector feels it, and a market that relies on a handful of big schemes is fragile. A genuine recovery needs to be seen across smaller, underlying schemes valued under £100m; too few of these are currently moving forward.”
Project starts represented the steepest fall
Detailed planning approvals fell 16% against the preceding three months, highlighting a sizeable reduction in the value of projects progressing to the start of the pipeline in the UK construction industry.
Main contract awards fell 19%, and project starts fell 26%, the steepest decline of the three indicators, with fewer schemes starting on site.
Year-on-year performance was generally subdued, with detailed planning approvals 28% lower than a year earlier and project starts down 21%, indicating weaker development activity across several sectors.
Main contract awards could be a source of light amongst the darkness
However, main contract awards provide a bright spot amid the gloom, bucking the downward trend with an impressive 25% year-on-year uptick, supported by major project commitments and higher-value schemes entering the construction pipeline.
Further afield, other public sector pipelines are holding up better. Education planning approvals climbed 60% year-on-year, and community and amenity approvals surged 200%. These stronger figures point to the implementation of pre-approved government spending plans being implemented across key areas of critical infrastructure.
Why is the UK construction sector constantly stuck in limbo?
Several factors keep the UK construction sector in a persistent malaise, with private housing dragging down performance as households feel the squeeze.
Struggling against a 3.3% inflation rise in August, unemployment edging up to 4.9% and wage growth slowing to 3.9%, the slowest since 2020, there’s little appetite whether it’s buying, selling or building. This has been partially offset by a 165% year-on-year surge in social housing, which has largely driven growth; it’s just not enough to put this vertical back in the black.
“Both the public and private markets are under pressure. Private developers face tariffs, taxes, and higher interest rates, while public spending plans remain uncertain. Developers and contractors are waiting to see what the Budget means for households and businesses, and for the government investment they were promised,” Wilen said.
“The Budget could be the most significant since Osborne’s austerity Budget, and we will be watching it closely to assess how it could impact our recovery predictions for 2027.”
