The latest ONS figures show that an increase in new work and repair and maintenance, anecdotally attributed to good weather, boosted construction output in May 2024
Brighter weather in May has been cited as the reason behind a bump in monthly construction output, with 1.9% growth in volume terms observed.
This follows a rainy April’s fall of 1.1%(revised from the previous figure of 1.4%).
Growth was observed across almost every vertical
New work(2.7%) and repair and maintenance (0.8%) both increased and across the sectors, eight out of nine saw growth.
Total new housing grew by 2.8% across both private and public works; infrastructure rose by a notable 3.5% and non-housing repair and maintenance grew by 2.1% on the month.
There is some evidence for the anecdotal reports of good weather being behind the bump in construction output, as the Met Office’s climate summary for May 2024 confirmed it was the warmest on record.
However, the wet April preceding it meant that construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.7% in the three months to May 2024; this came from a decrease in new work of 0.9%, and repair and maintenance, which fell by 0.3%.
“From zero to hero” in one month
Michael Wynne, director of the sustainable housebuilder Q New Homes, commented: “Construction has gone from zero to hero in the space of just one month, moving from the being the weakest to the strongest sector of the economy in May.
“The jump in output can only be partly explained by the contrast between May’s good weather – which was officially the warmest on record – and the rain soaked April, which delayed work on many building sites.
“Sentiment also picked up and cost inflation remained modest, with the surges in material costs seen last year now mostly a painful memory.
“Levels of new housebuilding spiked by 2.8% during the month, and while this is very welcome it’s worth remembering that this figure is flattered by comparison to the low levels seen during the first part of the year.
The sector will be watching the impact of political changes closely
“For all its strength, there’s more than a touch of the rear-view mirror about this ONS data – much of which was recorded in the weeks running up to Rishi Sunak’s surprise election announcement.
“A better test of the market’s health will come over the coming month, as housebuilders digest the reforms announced by the incoming Government and we anxiously await the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision at the start of August.
“The start of an interest rate cut cycle should unleash a surge of pent-up demand from both developers and homebuyers – which will determine whether today’s positive data is a blip or a bounceback.”
Fraser Johns, finance director at Beard, said: “While the three-month picture is a little more shaky, we can be really encouraged by a strong upturn in output in May – especially as it was seen across almost all sectors. Although more recent PMI data shows just how volatile the sector is, the news that both private and public new housing is leading this charge will be welcome to the many that rely on this sector. It is a real example of the resilience we continue to see from firms across UK construction.
“Until we see output and new orders increasing consistently month-on-month, we shouldn’t take anything for granted though. With the election now settled, the hope is we can all pick back up and continue to build momentum during the second half of the year. As we see borrowing conditions improve, with a potential base rate cut in the near future, this will certainly enable more clients to push ahead with plans.
“From our perspective at Beard, the construction sector remains really buoyant with our secured orders at a record high. We continue to prioritise close partnerships with both our clients and our supply chain, as well as a clear focus on both our approach to tendering and our cost plans.”
UK construction output “much better than expected”
Clive Docwra, managing director of property and construction consultancy McBains, said: “After previous statistics showed the construction sector lagging behind the modest uptick in growth witnessed in other industries, today’s figures are much better than expected.
“Especially welcome is that growth was experienced across most work sectors, with new housing seeing a 2.8% increase.
“Whether or not this represents the green shoots of recovery, however, is unclear. Over the three months to May output still decreased by 0.7%, showing that growth is still fragile.
“Despite these returns, the sector still needs a shot in the arm, and developers will hope Labour’s announcement this week to get the country building translates into renewed confidence from investors, both in housing and commercial projects.
“Every sector within the industry will also be crossing their fingers for a period of economic stability to help construction across the board get back on track.”
